Litteratur |
The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology. / Jaromir
Beneset al. IMF Working Paper, 2012 - 33 s.
'We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views
concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The
geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the
future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the
fact that world oil production has plateaued since 2005 despite
historically high prices, and that spare capacity has been near
historic lows. The technological view of oil expects that higher
oil prices must eventually have a decisive effect on oil output, by
encouraging technological solutions. It is supported by the fact
that high prices have, since 2003, led to upward revisions in
production forecasts based on a purely geological view. We present
a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that
encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing
empirical models in forecasting oil prices and oil output out of
sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price
of oil over the coming decade. The error bands are wide, and
reflect sharply differing judgments on ultimately recoverable
reserves, and on future price elasticities of oil demand and
supply.'
Sampson, Anthony: De syv søstre : De store
olieselskaber og den verden, de skabte. Gyldendal, 1976. - 331
s.