Det danske Fredsakademi
Kronologi over fredssagen og international politik 6. november 2012 / Timeline November 6, 2012
Version 3.55. November 2012, 7. November 2012
11/06/2012
FN's internationale
dag mod ødelæggelse af miljøet i krig og
under væbnede konflikter, siden 2001.
11/06/2012
UN International Day for Preventing the Exploitation of the
Environment in War and Armed Conflict, since 2001.
Literature: Protecting the Environment During Armed
Conflict: An Inventory and Analysis of International Law. / :
Elizabeth Maruma Mrema et al. - New York : United Nations
Environment Programme ; the Environmental Law Institute, 2009. - 88
s. - ISBN: 978-92-807-3042-5 [Online]
11/06/2012
Præsidentvalg i
USA / U.S.
presidential election. Obama fortsætter.
11/06/2012
Declassified 1964 National Intelligence Estimate Predicts
India's Bomb But Not Israel's
New Release Reports Country-by-Country Nuclear Capabilities, Fresh
Data on Global Proliferation Trends in Mid-1960s
Finds "Better than Even" Chance India Will Soon Build a Bomb; But
Mistakenly Concludes Israeli Leaders "Probably Have Not Yet
Decided"
NIE's Findings Add to Debate about How One State's Acquisition of
Nuclear Capability Could Affect Decisions by Regional Rivals
National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 401, Edited
by William Burr
Washington, D.C., November 6, 2012 -- The U.S. intelligence
community predicted India's nuclear bomb in 1964 but mistakenly
concluded Israel had "not yet decided" to go nuclear, according to
newly declassified documents posted today by the National Security
Archive and the Nuclear Proliferation International History
Project. Highlighting the posting is the National Intelligence
Estimate (NIE) from October 1964, now declassified in its entirety
by the CIA and including fresh details about the nuclear state of
play on a country-by-country level right at the time of the first
Chinese atomic test on 16 October 1964.
The report held that the "chances are better than even that India
will decide to build nuclear weapons within the next few years."
Although India had the capability to produce plutonium and the
Chinese test was likely to produce increasing "internal pressures"
for a decision, in fact it was years before India made a decision
to produce nuclear weapons, even describing its 1974 test as a
"peaceful nuclear explosion."
The estimate also concluded that Israeli leaders "probably have not
yet decided to develop nuclear weapons," although "strong
pressures" to do so could emerge depending on such factors as
armament levels of the Arab states or whether Israel was unable to
acquire "adequate quantities of conventional weapons." By contrast,
Avner Cohen's research (in his 1998 book Israel and the Bomb and
his 2010 volume The Worst Kept Secret) demonstrates that Prime
Minister Ben-Gurion had already taken the basic decisions to
develop a nuclear weapons capability in 1962, and that the Israelis
started to build their arsenal in 1967.
Interestingly, the 1964 NIE's conclusion differed from an estimate
a year earlier, which speculated that "the Israelis, unless
deterred by outside pressure, will attempt to produce a nuclear
weapon sometime in the next several years."
Read today's posting at the National Security Archive's Nuclear
Vault - http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/ebb401/
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