Det danske Fredsakademi
Kronologi over fredssagen og international politik 5. August
2008 / Timeline August 5, 2008
Version 3.5
4. August 2008, 6. August 2008
08/06/2008
Will the US Elections Bring Change?
By Don Monkerud
The upcoming election is shaping up to be a crucial battle as more
and more Americans become disgruntled and call for a change.
With disquieting wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, plunging paychecks,
increasing debt, and lost jobs, cultural issues such as abortion,
gay marriage, and racial politics-critical issues in national
elections since Ronald Reagan-are losing their allure with voters
anxious about real threats to their existence.
"Political coalitions get old just as people do," says Morris
Fiorina, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and author of the
upcoming book, The Great Disconnect in American Politics. "The
political structure is ossified, stuck in the controversies of the
1960s, and Republicans are in trouble because issues like race and
abortion do not resonate as strongly with a new generation of
voters."
Barack Obama
represents change, which accounts for his appeal among young
voters. In a poll conducted before the national Super Tuesday
presidential primary at Stanford University, 53 percent supported
Obama, 24 percent supported Clinton and 5 percent supported McCain.
And the youth vote could make a difference in the upcoming
election.
Daniel Wirls, professor of politics at UCSC and author of The
Invention of the United States Senate, predicts that this election
could bring a major turnout of young voters with a new perspective:
They don't view issues in the same way as older voters do.
Comparing the candidates leaves Obama with many advantages, but
young voters need to turn out where they will make a difference, in
states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan.
"This is the clearest example in modern times of a presidency
defined by one thing and one thing alone-the war on terror," says
Wirls. "Bush's popularity rose to 90 percent after 9/11 as people
rallied around the flag. But the war ground on with little progress
and began to be seen as a mistake by more and more people-even the
economy didn't become an issue until the past six months-and he
continued to slide in public opinion polls."
Americans are unhappy with the way things are going, but they are
also extremely cautious. People want change but don't want to upset
the status quo; they want an end to the war but fear significant
changes. They want economic change but are unsure about what a
president can do to change the economy. And, although Americans
want to hear something different, the candidates are moving toward
the center to avoid frightening voters. Wirls wonders whether
Obama's moderation of his message will lead to a loss of the
enthusiasm he created in the primaries.
"If Obama continues to pull his punches and moderate his positions,
young voters will wonder about him," says Wirls. "He only looks
different in comparison to his competitor: McCain allows him to
look different no matter what."
While discontent is an issue in the presidential campaign, the war
and the economy are in the forefront of voters' concerns. Sheldon
Kamieniecki, dean of social sciences at UCSC and author of
Corporate America and Environmental Policy: How Often Does Business
Get Its Way?, sees the economy as a more important issue in some
states than the war. The energy crisis is tied to the economy and
spills into environmental issues, as Republicans push for opening
public lands and areas off shore to oil exploration. Health care,
also tied to economic concerns, and education will also be
important campaign issues.
McCain got off on the wrong foot by proposing offshore drilling and
nuclear power, two unpopular issues many states including
California and Florida. McCain's campaign also appears confused.
Instead of running as a maverick and a populist, his advisors are
attempting to repackage him as a conservative, which doesn't work.
His supporters are not enthusiastic. Nationally, support for Bob
Barr, the libertarian candidate, could siphon conservative
Republican votes away from McCain. Will core conservatives stick
with McCain and will Obama discourage youthful enthusiasts as he
moves to the middle?
"We may be entering an era where both liberals and conservatives
have extra room to change their positions on issues and not worry
so much about their base," says Kamieniecki. "Both sides may be
more willing to move to the center in this election with less fear
of losing their base. McCain started with a problem of his
conservative base, but Obama's main challenge is to broaden the
base of traditional liberal support to reach business people and
the white working class-the Reagan Democrats."
After his successful visit to Europe and the Middle East, Obama
appears to have many advantages; but the dynamic flow of a campaign
can take unexpected turns. Few would have predicted that a Swift
Boat Campaign would have derailed John Kerry, a seasoned veteran
facing a president who went AWOL during the Vietnam War. Successful
negative attacks by McCain, the bombing of Iran or other unforeseen
circumstances could radically alter the campaign before November.
Daniel Wirls warns, "Don't think things are as they seem because
there's a good chance they won't be."
Top
Send
kommentar, email
eller søg i Fredsakademiet.dk
|