Fredsakademiet: Freds- og sikkerhedspolitisk Leksion K 583 : klimaforandringer

klimaforandringer

Latin: Sammensat begreb. Forandringer i naturens klima og vejr.
Herunder nutidens meneskeskabte klimaforandringer som først og fremmest skyldes:
1. industrialiseringens produktionsformer og produkter,
2. militarismens forbrug af fossile brændstoffer samt
3. landbrugets dyrkningsmetoder og forurening.
Bekendtgørelse af FN's rammekonvention af 9. juni 1992 om klimaændringer, 1994.

Se også: Istider ; klimaflygtninge ; klimarobusthed ; klimasikring ; uvejr.

Litteratur

IPCC, 2019: Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.- O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N. Weyer (eds.)]. In press.

Banking on Climate Change 2019 - Fossil Fuel Report Card / : Alison Kirsch et al
Rainforest Action Network (RAN) et al..
https://www.ran.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Banking_on_Climate_Change_2019_vFINAL.pdf For the first time, this report adds up lending and underwriting from 33 global banks to the fossil fuel industry as a whole. The findings are stark: these Canadian, Chinese, European, Japanese, and U.S. banks have financed fossil fuels with $1.9 trillion since the Paris Agreement was adopted (2016–2018), with financing on the rise each year. This report finds that fossil fuel financing is dominated by the big U.S. banks, with JPMorgan Chase as the world's top funder of fossil fuels by a wide margin. In other regions, the top bankers of fossil fuels are Royal Bank of Canada in Canada, Barclays in Europe, MUFG in Japan, and Bank of China in China.

Accelerating extinction risk from climate change. / : Mark C. Urban Science 348 (6234), 571-573., 2017.
Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change–induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.

Climate Change Adaptation – Research, Science and Innovation : Informing decisions, providing solutions. / : Edited by Miguel A. Martínez-Botí and Diogo de Gusmão-Sørensen. European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Directorate — Climate Action and Resource Efficiency, Unit I.4 - Climate action and Earth Observation, 2018.

Climate Change Profile: ... / : Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2018.
- https://www.government.nl/documents/publications/2019/02/05/climate-change-profiles

GAO: Climate resilience : DOD Needs to Assess Risk and Provide Guidance on Use of Climate Projections in Installation Master Plans and Facilities Designs, 2019.
DOD manages a global real-estate portfolio with an almost $1.2 trillion estimated replacement value. Since 2010, DOD has identified climate change as a threat to its operations and installations. In January 2019, DOD stated that the effects of a changing climate are a national security issue with potential impacts to the department’s missions, operational plans, and installations. GAO was asked to assess DOD’s progress in developing a means to account for potentially damaging weather in its facilities project designs.
Department of Defense (DOD) installations have not consistently assessed risks from extreme weather and climate change effects or consistently used projections to anticipate future climate conditions. For example, DOD’s 2018 preliminary assessment of extreme weather and climate effects at installations was based on the installations’ reported past experiences with extreme weather rather than an analysis of future vulnerabilities based on climate projections. Fifteen of the 23 installations GAO visited or contacted had considered some extreme weather and climate change effects in their plans as required by DOD guidance, but 8 had not. For example, Fort Irwin, California, worked with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to improve stormwater drainage after intense flash flooding caused significant damage to base infrastructure. By contrast, Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii, did not include such considerations in its plans, although it is located in an area subject to tropical storms and where further sea level rise is anticipated.

Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change. / : Heike K. Lotzea, et al. PNAS Latest Articles, 2019.
Climate change can affect the distribution and abundance of marine life, with consequences for goods and services provided to people. Because different models can lead to divergent conclusions about marine futures, we present an integrated global ocean assessment of climate change impacts using an ensemble ofmultiple climate and ecosystem models. It reveals that global marine animal biomass will decline under all emission scenarios, driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production. Notably, climate change impacts are amplified at higher food web levels compared with phytoplankton. Our ensemble projections provide the most comprehensive outlook on potential climate-driven ecological changes in the global ocean to date and can inform adaptive management and conservation of marine resources under climate change.

Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Military Installations: Policy Implications. / : The Defense Technical Information Center, 2013.
The effects of climate change will adversely impact military readiness and Department of Defense (DoD) natural and built infrastructure unless these risks are considered in DoD decisions. Considerations of future climate conditions need to be incorporated into the planning, design, and operations of military facilities, as well as into the strategic infrastructure decisions facing the military Services and DoD as a whole. This paper discusses the policy context and technical considerations related to these issues, drawing on lessons learned to date from four studies funded by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP). This paper focuses on coastal installations, but may inform the Department s overall approach to climate change.
I Mellemøsten kan vandet sætte alting i brand
Frygt lurer bag arktisk fiskeboom: Grønlands økonomi er i topform. Rejer, hellefisk og torsk indtjener kæmpebeløb. Men de samme klimaforandringer, der kan give flere fisk i havene, er også en trussel. Adam Hannestad. I: Politiken, 5. maj 2019.
Oveerskrift i den trykte udgave af Politiken.
Mellemøstens vandmangel skaber apokalyptiske scenarier og sender mennesker på flugt : Klimaforandringer og forværrede miljøforhold forstærker vandkrisen i Mellemøsten og risikerer at gøre dele af regionen ubeboelig ved århundredeskiftet. »Glem fremtiden,« siger en international ekspert: »Apokalyptiske scenarier i regionen udspiller sig allerede for vores øjne, og vi er ikke engang begyndt at tale om det« / : Waleed Safi. I: Information, 27. juli 2018.
I Odense Å dør fiskene i varmen : Odense Å er et dystert billede på klimaforandringernes konsekvenser. / : Mathias Buck Westergaard. I: Information, 3. august 2018.
Med sommerens nyhedstørke er det på sin plads at reflektere over nyhederne om tørke : Hvor længe og hvor tydeligt skal klimaændringernes realitet beskrives, før vi rigtig begriber, hvor fundamentale forandringer det kræver at bremse dem? / : Jørgen Steen Nielsen. I: Information, 7. juli 2018.
Klimaforskere: jo, det her handler om menneskeskabte klimaforandringer. / :Jørgen Steen Nielsen. I: Information, 28. juli 2018.
Omtale af World Weather Attribution og
Attribution of the 2018 heat in northern Europe
https://www.actu-environnement.com/media/pdf/news-31791-vagues-chaleur-europe.pdf
Leder: Oksekødsrapport er en skamplet på klimaforskningen. I: Informaton, 17. august 2019.
Protecting Health from Climate Change : Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment. / : Kristie Ebi et al. WHO, 2013.
This document is designed to provide basic and flexible guidance on conducting a national or subnational assessment of current and future vulnerability (i.e. the susceptibility of a population or region to harm) to the health risks of climate change, and of policies and programmes that could increase resilience, taking into account the multiple determinants of climate-sensitive health outcomes.
Climate change can affect population health through climate-induced economic dislocation and environmental decline, and through development setbacks incurred by damage to critical public health infrastructure and to livelihoods by extreme weather events.
Nyt omfattende studie skyder forhåbninger om grøn vækst ned : Verdensøkonomien er ikke i stand til at vokse, uden at CO2-udledningerne følger med. Sådan lyder konklusionen i et omfattende internationalt studie, der dermed gør op med forestillingen om grøn vækst. I de rige lande må der søges veje til mindre produktion og forbrug. / : Jørgen Steen Nielsen. I: Information, 17. juli 3019.
Omtale og referat af :
Parrique T., Barth J., Briens F., C. Kerschner, Kraus-Polk A., Kuokkanen A., Spangenberg J.H., 2019. Decoupling debunked: Evidence and arguments against green growth as a sole strategy for sustainability. European Environmental Bureau.
Revolution. / : John Scales Avery. The Danish Peace Academy, 2019.

Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. / : Will Steffen et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Aug 2018.
- http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115
Leder: Ulven er her allerede. I: Arbejderen, 9. august 2018.
Kommentar til rapporten: Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene.
Understanding Climate Change: Science, Policy, and Practice. / : Sarah L. Burch, Sara E. Harris. University of Toronto Press, 2014.
Vores valg : sådan løser vi klimakrisen. / : Al Gore. Information, 2009.

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